Reading Western and Ukrainian media, one would be convinced that the Ukrainian forces are winning and advancing on the front lines. That their drone strategy is hurting Russians deep inside mother Russia. And Volodymyr Zelensky’s big talk that “if Ukraine burns, then Russia will also burn” is hailed by many in the West.
The increasing terrorist tactics from the Ukrainian armed forces on Russian civilians are promoted as tactical advantages. The targeting of the dormitory where dozens of girls were killed is hailed instead of being condemned.
There are three great myths in this war lately: One is that Russia’s Vladimir Putin is losing popularity at home and that they want to get rid of him.
In keeping with this is the second myth, that of drones striking deep into Russia and that this has placed the Ukrainians in an advantageous position, so much so that the Russians might be thinking of surrendering.
The third myth is that the Ukrainians are inflicting massive causality levels on the Russians. Upwards of 40 000 Russian soldiers are being killed monthly, according to some Western intelligence agencies. And yet when you attempt to find causality figures for Ukrainians, you are told it’s a state secret.
The myths are patently false.
According to research by various pollsters, Putin’s popularity remains high but has experienced a noticeable, steady decline. State-owned pollster VTsIOM recorded his approval rating at roughly 65.6%, the lowest point since February 2022. Independent and semi-independent pollsters, like Levada and FOM, place his approval rating in the 73% to 79% range.
This is unlike Ukraine’s Zelensky, Donald Trump, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, the UK’s Keir Starmer and France’s Emmanuel Macron whose popularity ratings are all very low and in, some cases, tanking.
With regard to the second myth, that Russia is somehow considering surrender because of the past two bombing campaigns against it with drones and long-range missiles, it is a known fact that Russia has inflicted far more devastation in Ukraine over the past four years. Yet we don’t see Ukraine wanting to surrender. We are led to believe that somehow Russia is considering it after such small bombing campaigns in recent months. This is far-fetched.
All the myths are being promoted at a ferocious pace lately because Zelensky is in deep trouble, running out of options and losing the war, fast. Suddenly we see the G7 and America wanting to engage in peace talks with Putin.
But the Russian grandmasters are not biting because they know Ukraine is on its last legs. They know their war objectives are being realised and this war of attrition is paying dividends. They are in no hurry to engage in peace talks anytime soon.
Instead of bravado and lies, Zelensky should engage with realistic conditions. Insisting that there will be no territorial losses is simply unrealistic, especially when you have a weak hand. Sporadic terrorist attacks do not equate to tactical advantages.
Sanctions by the EU and US are also not paying dividends because Russia has proved that its wartime economy can be sustained. Combined with this, the shadow fleet transporting Russian oil has also contributed to its resilience during the past four years.
As for the Persian grandmasters in Tehran, well, what an outcome in these preliminary talks with the US. The deal does face real challenges but thus far it does place Iran as the clear victor after this war.
It’s all good and well to sign it but the real challenge is about implementation.
Iran says it will continue enriching uranium, though not to levels intended for a nuclear weapon. It also insists that after negotiations, it will have some control over the Strait of Hormuz.
The finer detail of the deal is overall positive for the Iranians and certainly spells out that Iran will be a future hegemon and have some measure of control in the region.
Trump, Zelensky and the EU leaders collectively must accept that they have bitten off more than they can chew and will have to concede that they have been defeated in these wars.
- Dr Van Heerden is a senior research fellow at the Centre for African Diplomacy and Leadership at UJ
- Reading Western and Ukrainian media, one would be convinced that the Ukrainian forces are winning and advancing on the front lines.
- That their drone strategy is hurting Russians deep inside mother Russia.
- And Volodymyr Zelensky’s big talk that “if Ukraine burns, then Russia will also burn” is hailed by many in the West.
- The increasing terrorist tactics from the Ukrainian armed forces on Russian civilians are promoted as tactical advantages.
- The targeting of the dormitory where dozens of girls were killed is hailed instead of being condemned.
