Zandile Gumede’s defection: A political earthquake that could redraw eThekwini’s electoral map

Obita sit voluptatius maio tem nis eatem. Fuga. Ut omnis quamus

The decision by former eThekwini mayor Zandile Gumede to leave the African National Congress (ANC) and join the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) is more than another episode of political migration. It represents a strategic realignment that could fundamentally reshape the balance of forces in South Africa’s largest metropolitan municipality, which the ANC governs.

With the November local government elections approaching, Gumede’s move has injected new uncertainty into a city that has long served as the political and organisational heartbeat of the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal.

Gumede is not an ordinary political recruit. She is one of the most influential grassroots politicians the ANC has produced in post-apartheid eThekwini. Her political influence extends beyond her tenure as mayor between 2016 and 2019.

She built extensive networks through branches, ward structures, civic organisations, and regional leadership, culminating in her election as ANC eThekwini regional chairperson in 2022 despite facing corruption charges.

Her appeal has always rested less on elite politics and more on deep organisational penetration among ordinary ANC members, particularly in northern and western Durban.

Her appointment by MKP as the party’s KwaZulu-Natal deputy convener demonstrates that Jacob Zuma’s party sees her not merely as a symbolic acquisition but as a central figure in its municipal election strategy.

The significance of this defection must also be understood against the backdrop of the ANC’s declining electoral fortunes. The 2024 national election confirmed that KwaZulu-Natal is no longer the ANC’s political fortress.

MKP emerged as the dominant force in the province by capitalising on widespread dissatisfaction with governance, unemployment, service delivery failures, and the enduring personal appeal of former President Jacob Zuma.

The ANC has consequently entered the 2026 municipal elections from a position of relative weakness rather than historical dominance.

Within eThekwini, this decline has been particularly visible. The metro has struggled with deteriorating infrastructure, recurring water shortages, electricity disruptions, waste management failures, governance instability, and the slow pace of post-flood reconstruction.

These governance challenges have eroded public confidence in the ANC-led municipality and provided fertile ground for opposition parties to mobilise electoral support. Increasingly, municipal elections are less about liberation credentials and more about everyday service delivery.

Against this backdrop, Gumede’s departure weakens the ANC in three important ways.

First, it undermines organisational cohesion. Political parties are sustained by local branch structures, activist networks, and trusted community organisers. Gumede commands loyalty among councillors, branch leaders, and long-serving ANC activists who may now reconsider their political future.

Even if only a fraction of her supporters follow her to MKP, the ANC’s campaign machinery in strategic wards could be significantly weakened.

Second, the defection reinforces the perception that MKP has become the natural political home for former Zuma-aligned ANC leaders. Politics is often driven by momentum as much as ideology.

Every high-profile defection creates an impression that power is shifting. Such perceptions can become self-fulfilling as local leaders seek proximity to emerging centres of influence rather than declining ones.

Third, Gumede strengthens MKP’s credibility in local government politics. While MKP performed impressively during the 2024 national elections, questions remained regarding its municipal leadership capacity.

Recruiting a former metropolitan mayor gives the party administrative experience, organisational knowledge, and a recognisable mayoral figure capable of contesting eThekwini with greater confidence.

Does this mean the ANC is destined to lose eThekwini?

Not necessarily.

Municipal elections differ fundamentally from national elections. Voters frequently split their ballots according to local performance, candidate quality, and ward dynamics.

The ANC retains significant institutional advantages, including an extensive branch network, access to municipal incumbency, organisational experience, and a loyal electoral base.

Furthermore, local elections often produce lower voter turnout, benefiting parties with disciplined organisational structures.

However, the ANC can no longer assume electoral dominance. Instead, it enters the election as one competitor among several. The contest in eThekwini is likely to produce a fragmented council in which no single party secures an outright majority.

Coalition politics may therefore become unavoidable.

Whether the ANC retains the mayoralty will depend less on whether it finishes first than on whether it can assemble a viable governing coalition. South Africa’s recent metropolitan experience demonstrates that coalition negotiations increasingly determine executive power more than election night results.

If MKP emerges as the largest party without an outright majority, it too will require coalition partners. Consequently, the battle for eThekwini may ultimately be decided in negotiation rooms rather than at polling stations.

• Tenza is a PhD Candidate at the Wits School of Governance

NDABEZITHA TENZA