The DA’s Western Cape fortress is deemed no longer safe, with the Patriotic Alliance (PA) declared to stand the best chance to crack the governing party’s walls ward by ward in the very communities the DA once called its own.
According to analysts, the PA has emerged as the most serious political threat to nearly two decades of DA rule in the Western Cape, with its message gaining traction in key coloured communities ahead of the November 4 local government elections.
This year alone, the PA has taken four wards from the DA in by-elections across coloured-dominated areas, a development that has intensified pressure on the governing party.
The most recent this week on Wednesday was in Stellenbosch Municipality, where the PA won Ward 16 in Cloetesville, with former DA councillor Elsabe Vermeulen defecting to the PA and winning.
Inside the PA, the strategy is to position the party as a challenger to what it calls the DA’s failed governance model in working-class areas — especially on the Cape Flats, where crime, unemployment, and inadequate housing remain acute.
PA spokesperson Steve Motale said the province needs a decisive shift towards “distributive governance”. Current policies, he argued, have not meaningfully addressed the needs of marginalised communities.
“A Western Cape with meaningful PA influence would look like a province that stops managing crises at arm’s length and starts treating them as the central governance priority they are,” Motale said.
Central to the PA’s campaign is a fundamental attack on the DA’s governance model – particularly on resource allocation.
“The question the DA has never adequately answered is ‘efficient delivery for whom and towards what end?’” Motale said.
“The PA believes provincial governance must be explicitly redistributive – not punitively, but in the sense that the province’s resources, opportunities and attention must be consciously directed at those left furthest behind.”
Vermeulen told Sunday World she left the DA to join the PA solely because the community of her ward came first.
“I’ve served as DA Ward councillor for Ward 16 in Stellenbosch for years, and I just won the by-election because residents trust me to fight for them. But I’ve been repeatedly disappointed by the DA-led municipality’s failure to deliver.”
She continued: When we had fire victims in Ward 16, people were left suffering while I was fighting for urgent relief and basic service delivery. The DA, as the ruling party in Stellenbosch, failed our residents when they needed government most.”
DA national spokesperson Jan De Villiers disagreed, saying, “The Western Cape remains the best-run province in South Africa, not by accident, but because of consistent, accountable DA governance that prioritises delivery.”
De Villiers said this was because “the DA cares about people, about how people live and about how governance can make lives better.”
He said the PA briefly governed in the Central Karoo District, where all sorts of promises were made, including turning Beaufort West into “Dubai West”, but none were fulfilled, resulting in voters rejecting the PA in that region and Beaufort West becoming a DA majority council for the first time.
“We stand ready to defend and advance our delivery plans in the November election,” he added.
Analysts say early evidence shows this message is resonating, especially where dissatisfaction with service delivery and safety remains high.
Professor Zwelinzima Ndevu, director at Stellenbosch University’s School of Public Leadership, said recent by-election results point to growing PA support in areas traditionally dominated by the DA.
“The coloured areas seem to be warming up to the PA. I wouldn’t be surprised if many wards currently held by the DA end up in the hands of the PA,” he said.
“Another possibility is that they may get more PR seats than any party in the Western Cape.”
Political analyst Keith Gottschalk attributed the DA’s losses to unresolved social issues.
“The DA’s biggest strategic mistake is not doing more about crime gangs and housing delivery in coloured areas in the Western Cape,” he said.
He warned that a strong PA showing could reshape provincial governance.
“If the PA could force the DA into a coalition, Gayton McKenzie would have enormous leverage. He already has the leverage to demand an appointment as a cabinet minister. He already demands mayoral posts and policy changes on foreign migrants.”
However, Gottschalk cautioned that the PA’s growth may have limits. “The PA does not appeal much to ANC and EFF voters – that is, African voters – at present.”
The party’s rise has also triggered internal criticism. A former PA member alleged the party is exploiting the same communities it claims to represent for political gain.
“I was part of the inner circle of Gayton, and I can tell you that they are using the coloured vote to gain more economic bargaining power,” the former member said. “If you look at wards the PA has won or even closely lost, there is little evidence of meaningful change. Then ask yourself: does the PA really care for coloured people, or are they used to gain votes to give Gayton and his cronies more bargaining power?”
The criticism reflects broader concerns about political opportunism across parties. “It’s not only the DA that has taken coloured people for granted – political parties across the board have done it. But the PA, in my view, has misused that trust the most.”
Inside the DA, concerns are also mounting. A party insider said the DA has become disconnected from voters on the ground.
“Council matters become more important than the needs of the people on the ground,” the insider said, attributing the issue to the party’s “arrogance and weak branch structures”.
Political movement between the DA and the PA has also shifted the dynamics. A former DA leader who joined the PA said the party resonates more strongly with affected communities.
“The PA speaks better for the man on the ground and understands their issues better. That’s what the voters are saying.”
But not all who joined have remained. A former PA leader who rejoined the DA described internal chaos.
“The PA is not what it seems on social media. They do not have any structure. Gayton is very irrational – he wakes up with ideas and then changes his mind halfway through without thinking. He is a crook who will say anything in the moment so people are happy, even if he knows it’s not the truth.”
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- The DA’s Western Cape fortress is deemed no longer safe, with the Patriotic Alliance (PA) declared to stand the best chance to crack the governing party’s walls ward by ward in the very communities the DA once called its own.
- According to analysts, the PA has emerged as the most serious political threat to nearly two decades of DA rule in the Western Cape, with its message gaining traction in key coloured communities ahead of the November 4 local government elections.
- This year alone, the PA has taken four wards from the DA in by-elections across coloured-dominated areas, a development that has intensified pressure on the governing party.
- The most recent this week on Wednesday was in Stellenbosch Municipality, where the PA won Ward 16 in Cloetesville, with former DA councillor Elsabe Vermeulen defecting to the PA and winning.
- Inside the PA, the strategy is to position the party as a challenger to what it calls the DA’s failed governance model in working-class areas — especially on the Cape Flats, where crime, unemployment, and inadequate housing remain acute.
