By Setumo Stone
Deportations and voluntary repatriations of irregular foreign nationals contributed to lower net migration estimates, but the statistics agency says the full impact of enforcement measures will only become clear as new data emerges.
This followed months of heightened public pressure over undocumented migration, including protests demanding government action.
Stats SA’s 2026 mid-year population estimates show that migration assumptions were adjusted after a “notable number” of deportations and voluntary repatriations were processed by the South African government with various stakeholders during May and June.
The report does not provide a figure for the number of irregular migrants removed from South Africa or the total number of undocumented foreign nationals living in the country.
Instead, Stats SA says migration remains one of the most difficult population factors to measure because official systems do not capture all movements across South Africa’s borders.
“International migration surveillance systems have failed to accurately account for the number of international migrants entering or exiting the country either through land, sea, or air,” Stats SA says.
The agency says irregular migration creates particular challenges because people entering or leaving outside formal systems are often not reflected in administrative records.
To estimate migration levels, Stats SA uses a range of information sources, including census data, population structures, education and health data, employment information, migration data from other countries and available research.
Between 2021 and 2026, Gauteng recorded the largest migrant inflow at about 1.42-million people, followed by the Western Cape with about 500 093.
Gauteng remains the largest province by population, with an estimated 16.3-million residents, followed by KwaZulu-Natal with 12.29-million.
Stats SA says migration is an important demographic process because it influences where people live and affects planning for services. The agency’s findings highlight the gap between the political debate around migration and the statistical ability to measure it.
The latest estimates place South Africa’s population at 63.52-million people.
- Deportations and voluntary repatriations of irregular foreign nationals contributed to lower net migration estimates in South Africa according to Stats SA’s 2026 mid-year population estimates.
- Stats SA adjusted migration assumptions after a significant number of deportations and repatriations were processed during May and June but did not provide exact figures for these removals or for the total number of undocumented migrants.
- The agency states that measuring migration is challenging because official systems fail to capture all cross-border movements, particularly for irregular migrants not recorded in administrative data.
- Gauteng recorded the largest migrant inflow of approximately 1.42 million people between 2021 and 2026, followed by the Western Cape with about 500,093 migrants.
- South Africa’s estimated population stands at 63.52 million, with Gauteng as the most populous province at 16.3 million residents, followed by KwaZulu-Natal with 12.29 million.
