The price of South Africa’s foreign policy battle

On 3 August 2026, the Democratic Alliance (DA), AfriForum and the Vaderland Stigting challenged the Expropriation Act in the Western Cape High Court.

The DA argued that the legislation was passed unlawfully, while AfriForum contended that the Act gives authorities excessively broad discretion to determine when compensation is not payable.

Shortly before the court proceedings, US Ambassador to South Africa Brent Bozell met with Afrikaner groups at the US embassy in Pretoria. According to the embassy, the discussions included how the US government’s focus on the Afrikaner community could contribute to a “safer and more prosperous SA”.

The meeting has added to concerns about the extent of US engagement in South Africa’s domestic affairs, particularly against the backdrop of Washington’s criticism of the government’s foreign-policy positions, reductions in health funding, tariffs on South African exports and threats affecting trade benefits.

Spain’s current migrant crisis has also become part of the broader debate about the consequences of diplomatic disagreements with Washington and Israel.

On 30 July 2026, approximately 60,000 migrants crossed from Morocco into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta within 24 hours.

The development followed a period of heightened tensions between Spain and the United States over Madrid’s position on the war involving Iran. Spain had previously denied the use of its bases and airspace to US aircraft involved in military operations connected to the conflict.

In April 2026, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Spain’s government of conducting a “diplomatic war” against Israel and warned that Spain would face an “immediate price”.

On 8 July 2026, US President Donald Trump described Spain as a ‘terrible partner’ and instructed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to prepare measures that could end trade with the country.

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly subsequently said Spain should reverse policies enabling mass migration or “risk their own demise”.

Iran’s embassy in Kenya has suggested that the US and Israel orchestrated the mass migrant crossing as a means of putting pressure on Madrid over its position on conflicts in the Middle East. That allegation has not been independently established.

The wider diplomatic context is also significant.

The United States and Israel have both recognised Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, while Morocco has maintained defence and intelligence cooperation with Israel since normalising relations in 2020.

The Ceuta crisis occurred shortly after Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez visited Algeria, Morocco’s regional rival, and after a Spanish congressional committee advanced legislation offering citizenship to Sahrawis.

For South Africa, the developments are being watched against its own increasingly difficult relationship with Washington.

On 27 July 2026, Colombia’s President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella, whose victory was publicly endorsed by Trump, announced the closure of Colombia’s embassy in Pretoria.

The decision reverses the diplomatic framework established under outgoing President Gustavo Petro, whose government joined South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice.

De la Espriella has pledged to restore relations with Israel and reopen Colombia’s embassy in Jerusalem.

South Africa’s position on Israel, Iran and other international conflicts has placed it increasingly at odds with Washington.

Pretoria’s decision to pursue its case against Israel at the International Court of Justice, maintain diplomatic relations with countries viewed by Washington as adversarial and reject alignment with US policy on Iran has contributed to growing tensions between the two governments.

Funding for PEPFAR was cut following a broader February 2025 executive order that froze approximately $440 million in annual assistance. The US administration cited, among other issues, the Expropriation Act, South Africa’s ICJ case against Israel and its relationship with Iran.

A 12.5% tariff was imposed on South African exports on 24 July 2026, following a Section 301 investigation launched in March. Washington has also threatened to suspend South Africa’s eligibility for the African Growth and Opportunity Act.

The economic consequences are now being compounded by developments in global energy markets.

The US-Israeli military action against Iran, initiated on 28 February 2026, triggered the most significant global energy disruption since 2022.

Data from the Central Energy Fund shows that petrol prices have increased cumulatively by R4.74 per litre, while diesel has risen by R6.48 per litre.

Mineral and Petroleum Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe attributed the volatility to disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, saying renewed US-Iran tensions pushed Brent crude to $100 a barrel.

Higher transport costs have subsequently placed additional pressure on global food prices, with agricultural commodities including wheat, fertiliser and maize affected by supply-chain instability.

For South Africa, these developments are no longer confined to diplomatic exchanges.

Higher fuel prices increase the cost of transport and logistics, while rising input costs place further pressure on food producers, businesses and consumers. Tariffs on South African exports could also affect industries that depend on access to the US market, with potential implications for investment and employment.

The tariffs, the Expropriation Act dispute, cuts to health funding, Colombia’s embassy closure and the tensions surrounding Spain’s migrant crisis have different immediate causes and cannot automatically be treated as parts of one coordinated policy.

However, taken together, they have intensified debate over whether the United States is increasingly using trade, aid and diplomatic pressure to influence countries whose sovereign policy choices conflict with Washington’s strategic interests.

For South Africa, the costs of this increasingly difficult relationship could be measured in higher fuel and food prices, pressure on jobs and exports, reduced access to international markets and a more complicated diplomatic environment.

The central question is whether South Africa can maintain its independent foreign-policy position while managing the economic consequences of non-alignment with Washington.

As Pretoria continues to assert its sovereignty and pursue relationships across the Global South, the challenge will be balancing that independence with the economic realities of dealing with one of the world’s most influential trading and diplomatic powers.

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  • On 3 August 2026, the Democratic Alliance, AfriForum, and the Vaderland Stigting challenged South Africa's Expropriation Act in the Western Cape High Court, arguing it was passed unlawfully and gives excessive discretion on compensation.
  • US Ambassador Brent Bozell met with Afrikaner groups in Pretoria to discuss US focus on the community and its potential contributions to a safer and more prosperous South Africa.
  • The Spanish migrant crisis in Ceuta on 30 July 2026, where 60,000 migrants crossed from Morocco in 24 hours, followed heightened diplomatic tensions between Spain and the US over Spain’s Middle East policies.
  • South Africa faces growing tensions with the US due to its foreign policy on Israel and Iran, funding cuts to PEPFAR, a 12.5% tariff on exports, threats to African Growth and Opportunity Act eligibility, and Colombia closing its embassy in Pretoria.
  • Global energy disruptions from US-Israeli military action against Iran have caused significant fuel price increases in South Africa, contributing to higher transport and food costs amid ongoing diplomatic and economic pressures.